Friday, September 30, 2011

Canada canola to qualify for U.S. biodiesel use: group (Reuters)

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) ? Approval of Canadian crops like canola and corn for use in U.S. biofuels is "imminent" the head of the Canola Council of Canada said on Thursday.

Canola Council president JoAnne Buth said she expects the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to formally approve Canadian crops as a renewable biomass either Thursday or Friday.

That designation will allow Canadian canola and corn to receive renewable identification numbers so that U.S. biofuel makers can collect tax credits for using those crops, she said.

(Reporting by Rod Nickel)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/environment/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110929/wl_canada_nm/canada_us_canola_canada_biodiesel

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China ready for next space leap

China is due to launch its first space laboratory, Tiangong-1.

The 10.5m-long, cylindrical module will be unmanned for the time being, but the country's astronauts, or yuhangyuans, are expected to visit it next year.

Tiangong-1 will demonstrate the critical technologies needed by China to build a fully fledged space station - something it has promised to do at the end of the decade.

The space lab is set to ride to orbit atop a Long March 2F rocket.

State media say the lift-off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in Gansu Province is likely to occur between 21:16 and 21:31 local time (13:16-13:31 GMT).

The Long March will put Tiangong in a near-circular path around the Earth, just a few hundred km above the surface.

It will operate in an autonomous mode, monitored from the ground. Then, in a few weeks' time, China will launch another unmanned spacecraft, Shenzhou 8, and try to link the pair together.

This rendezvous and docking capability is a prerequisite if larger structures are ever to be assembled in orbit.

Commentators say Russian technology, or a close copy of it, will be used to bring the two craft into line.

Assuming the venture goes well, two manned missions (Shenzhou 9 and 10) should follow in 2012. The yuhangyuans - two or three at a time - are expected to live aboard the conjoined vehicles for up to two weeks.

  • Tiangong-1 will launch on the latest version of a Long March 2F rocket
  • The lab will go into a 300-400km-high orbit and will be untended initially
  • An unmanned Shenzhou vehicle will later try to dock with Tiangong
  • The orbiting lab will test key technologies such as life-support systems
  • China's stated aim is to build a 60-tonne space station by about 2020

Tiangong means "heavenly palace" in Chinese. The programme is the second step in what Beijing authorities describe as a three-step strategy.

The first step was the development of the Shenzhou capsule system which has so far permitted six nationals to go into orbit since 2003; then the technologies needed for spacewalking and docking, now in progress; and finally construction of the space station.

Animation showing the launch of Tiangong-1 and eventual completion of China's space station

At about 60 tonnes in mass, this future station would be considerably smaller than the 400-tonne international platform operated by the US, Russia, Europe, Canada and Japan, but its mere presence in the sky would nonetheless represent a remarkable achievement.

Concept drawings describe a core module weighing some 20-22 tonnes, flanked by two slightly smaller laboratory vessels.

Officials say it would be supplied by freighters in exactly the same way that robotic cargo ships keep the International Space Station (ISS) today stocked with fuel, food, water, air, and spare parts.

There has been much talk about China becoming involved in the ISS project itself, and the fact that it has adopted many Russian engineering standards would certainly make it technically possible for Shenzhou vehicles to visit the orbiting complex.

Europe, too, has argued that additional partners could help spread the cost of running what is an extremely expensive endeavour. But political differences between China and the US would appear to make such involvement unlikely in the near-term.

"These are decisions that have to be taken by the whole ISS partnership; everyone has to agree," says Karl Bergquist from the European Space Agency's (Esa) international relations department.

"You also have to see whether it is something which would interest a country like China, given their ambitions in space. They have advanced so far in their plans that they will probably go ahead and develop their own station," he told BBC News.

Thomas Reiter, the director of human spaceflight at Esa, was asked to comment on the status of China's space programme during a seminar this month at the London School of Economics.

"I think the Chinese want to prove to themselves and others that they are on a level," he said. "At that point, it becomes a moment for discussion on greater co-operation. We are certainly drifting towards each other."

The director said he could envisage the day when yuhangyuans made visits to European astronaut training facilities.

Currently, most of Europe's engagement with China falls in the area of space science.

Esa participated in the Double Star mission, a pair of satellites sent into orbit to study the Sun's interaction with the Earth's magnetic field.

There is also co-operative work in Earth observation, assisting the Chinese with the development of applications to interpret satellite data.

In the UK, manufacturer Surrey Satellite Technology Limited announced recently that it would be making three high-resolution imaging spacecraft for the purpose of mapping China.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/int/news/-/news/science-environment-15078569

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Give Your Dog The Best Health Care Possible With Natural Balance ...

All types of pets will always have different needs, it is because each species of pets like dogs has different sizes and since the majority of the global community owns a pet or two, the demand for pet food and all pet care related products have increased over time. If you happen to own a dog, surely you know how it feels to have someone waiting for you at home; you know how rewarding it is to have something so cute beside you all the time. It is why when it comes to providing your pet with all the proper nutrients and minerals; you should only go for the Natural Balance Food line up of food products. Since the majority of dogs tend to have changes in their taste buds frequently, you can choose to feed them with canned goods, rolls or dry goods. The Natural Balance is specifically created to provide each dog of all sizes the best amount of health giving ingredients, and because many pet owners are not knowledgeable of what and what not to give their dogs; these pets tend to incur certain ailments in the long run if not observed properly.

As a pet owner, you should always make yourself aware of what to only feed your dogs, not all dog food houses the essential nutrients they need, in fact the most common mistake of many owners is that they feed their pets with the wrong type of pet food or other products that contain certain allergens harmful to the immune system of the pet. Aside from knowing the simple don?ts such as chocolate, egg, and other dairy products, what the multitude of individuals doesn?t know as well is that grains and some types of meat are bad for the dog as well. The Natural Balance Food products do not at all contain any types of elements such as grains and chemically grown ingredients, it is approved to be of human grade so there is nothing to worry about quality content.

With Natural Balance Food you are guaranteed that what you feed your pet is completely grain free and chemical free, you can choose to give your dogs with what best suits their personalities as there is a wide array of food choices to select from. They have the Original Ultra Premium Formula for dogs of all types, they also have a specific option for dogs that needs less calorie intake, and the Less Calorie Formula is perfect for dogs that are overweight and needs to lessen the amount of food they eat. And also, they have the A.M.P which stands for Agility ? Muscle ? Performance, this is what most show handlers and participants feed their pets to ensure vitality and glow in joining contests.

Source: http://www.linuxtest.org/2011/09/give-your-dog-the-best-health-care-possible-with-natural-balance-food/

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Oil rises on encouraging economic news (AP)

NEW YORK ? Oil is rising following encouraging economic news in the U.S. and Europe.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that the U.S. economy grew faster in the spring than previously estimated, while the Labor Department said that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell sharply last week.

German lawmakers took a major step toward dealing with the region's debt crisis by strengthening a bailout fund. That eased worries that Europe's debt problems could spread and lead to another recession.

Benchmark crude rose $2.14, or 2.6 percent, to $83.37 per barrel in New York. Brent crude was $1.22 higher at $105.03 a barrel in London.

At the pump, gasoline prices fell a penny on Thursday to a national average of $3.455 per gallon.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/energy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110929/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Moderate your Finances with Professional Car Loans Advice | A ...

by: Author65 - September 28th, 2011

It is easier than ever before to obtain credit to increase your financial situation. In fact there are many products available on the market the selection can be a little overwhelming. It is a great idea to seek professional car finance advice before signing up to any deals. Knowing the market and knowing what to look for are necessary to finding the top deals.

Where you might get Professional Auto Loan Advice

There are a number of ways to have professional car lease advice:

- Lenders ? it is possible to go directly to the lender for more information chiptuning audi about the products they give you. Lenders are going to have experienced sales agents working for them who definitely are able to help you work out which type of car lease is the best for your needs. Nevertheless it truly is remember this that these agents will be thinking about selling you their items. It indicates the information they give will likely be influenced simply by their sales targets to some degree.

- Independent Financial Advisors ? this sort of advisor shouldn?t be tied to any single lender or product. This suggests chiptuning skoda they can present you with more objective information on the types of motor finance available. Getting professional car loan advice from a completely independent advisor could be an extremely practical way of crafting sure you get the best loan for your circumstances.

- Online Advisors ? one of the easiest and quickest ways to get professional car lease advice is to go online. There are some great websites available that can provide you with a lot of useful details on auto loans. chiptuning citroen They can be useful for finding out what loans are available and which ones could work for you best. This online advice cost nothing and available 24/7. You?ll also have the capacity to contact specialist advisors directly by email and telephone if you have anymore questions.

Advantages of Professional Car Loans Advice

A car loan is usually a big financial responsibility. This assists you afford the next car and can have to be managed carefully to avoid any poverty. One of the very critical factors is to make sure you get the best loan to your circumstances. You will need a loan that you?ll repay without stretching your budget. One of the biggest mistakes folk make when disposing of loans is that they borrow too much. This means they have difficulty to fulfill the work out payments and may then doesn?t keep up todate.

Another general downside is the failure to shop around for the best deals. You could save a lot of currency if you take enough time to look at the actual market. A highly trained car loan advisor can help you have a look at a range of products and find out what one provides you with the best offer.

Source: http://bitterandresentful.com/moderate-your-finances-with-professional-car-loans-advice/

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Studying Distance Education Engineering Lets You Work While You ...

Are you the type person who imaginative, resourceful, and innovative?? Have you considered going into an industry that has a plethora of opportunities to select from?? If you?ve answered ?yes? to the above questions, then a career in engineering could be right for you.? Additionally, there are multiple specialties you can focus in when obtaining your degree. Read articles on engineering degree online to learn everything about the college process.

Under the umbrella of engineering, there are various subfields such as biomedical, nanotechnology, environmental, and aerospace.? Depending on which niche is appealing, you can direct your educational track by taking relevant coursework.? Some specialties, such as systems engineering and computer science, are the most predominant in the industry.

If you take the plunge and procure a degree in engineering, you might be pleased to know that many employment options exist.? You could become an agricultural engineer who uses engineering technology and agricultural science to design sensors, power systems, or machinery.? Maybe infrastructure intrigues you.? You could become a civil engineer and supervise the construction of airports, tunnels, roads, bridges, and dams.? How about aerospace?? Have you ever wanted to test, supervise, or create missiles, spacecraft, and aircraft?? Aerospace engineers do all of the above!? Available choices are abundant.? It?s just a matter of narrowing it down to?whatever area appeals to you the most. Check resources on civil engineering degree to prepare for the challenges ahead.

The ability to communicate well is important if you are thinking about becoming an engineer.? This need includes being able to write and speak effectively.? Many times, engineers must work with people from other specialties and you will find it necessary to cooperate with them.? Computers are an integral part of the engineering profession so you should be very familiar with using them.

Various colleges and universities offer engineering degrees whether they are four year, Bachelor?s, two year Master?s, or PhD?s.? You are the right person to decide how much of an education you want to receive and how far you want to go.? However, you must be conscious of the realization that most potential employers want to see evidence of a four year degree.? A Bachelor?s lets them know you are specialized and well equipped to enter the field upon graduation.? Online courses are often available and, again, you have the freedom to select where, when, and how you will make your education become a reality. Learn all you can about online college and work towards a better future.

High school students who are considering becoming an engineer should select classes like geometry, calculus, trigonometry, and the sciences.? Once you have chosen your four year institution and engineering specialty, you will take courses like:?? physical and life sciences, mathematics, design, general engineering, humanities, social sciences, and computers.

The U. S. Department of Labor and Statistics asserts that engineering, as an industry, will grow by eleven percent between 2008-2018.? Advancing technology and the subsequent need for engineers will produce a greater hike in employment. This news is great if you are serious about entering this sector.

So, what do you have to look forward to if you obtain your B.S. in Engineering?? You will find yourself in a stimulating occupation in which you can cultivate progressive technological skills in a cutting edge field.

Source: http://referenceandeducation.therefinedgeek.com.au/index.php/2011/09/studying-distance-education-engineering-lets-you-work-while-you-learn/

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Estimating Different Sources of Variation and Predicting Tournament ...

The inspiration for this article came after reading several articles by Scott Berry, former writer of the A Statistician Reads the Sports Page column. I found two of his articles particularly interesting. One discussed the dominance of Tiger Woods in golf using data from the beginning of the 1999 PGA Tour season through the 2001 Masters Tournament. The other focused on leisure sports such as bass fishing and darts. In both, a Bayesian hierarchical model (with a normal distribution for the data) was used to estimate the abilities of the golfers and the fishermen, as well as the difficulty of the tournaments in which they participated. I began to consider if there were any other sports, whether ?leisure? or ?athletic,? that had not been thoroughly investigated and whose data could be modeled in a similar fashion. The sport of ten-pin bowling immediately came to mind.

It appears there has been little research on bowling. In ?Quantitative Aspects of Five-Pin Bowling,? authors Wenjun Chen and Tim Swartz show that the logarithms of five-pin bowling scores are approximately normally distributed. In ?Bowlers? Hot Hands,? Reid Dorsey-Palmateer and Gary Smith investigate whether a ?hot hand? effect exists in professional bowling. Using data from the 2002?2003 Professional Bowlers Association (PBA) National Tour season, the authors find evidence that for some professional (ten-pin) bowlers, the probability of rolling a strike on the current frame is not independent of the outcomes on previous frames and that there is more variation in the number of strikes rolled across games than would be predicted by chance alone. In particular, they found that most bowlers were more likely to strike in the current frame if they had struck in the previous frame (or frames). These results provide evidence that the ?hot hand? effect exists in professional bowling.

As far as I know, however, there has been no attempt to model the scores of professional or recreational (ten-pin) bowlers. I attempt to do so in this article. In particular, I am interested in examining bowling data from tournaments played on the PBA National Tour. My primary goals are to estimate the variation in bowling scores, bowler abilities, and tournament difficulties. I also attempt to (via simulation) estimate the probabilities of top bowlers winning tournaments and the probabilities of non-exempt bowlers making it into tournaments through the tournament qualifying round (TQR).

The Game of Bowling and the PBA Tour

Bowling is a game in which a spherical ball (a ?bowling ball,? usually weighing between 10 and 16 pounds) is rolled down a lane approximately 60 feet long and 41.5 inches wide in an attempt to knock down as many pins as possible. (In ten-pin bowling, there are 10 pins arranged in a pyramid shape at the end of the lane.) Each lane is coated with oil that can be applied in a variety of ways, and it is these different oil patterns that have a major effect on how difficult it will be for bowlers to achieve high scores.

For instance, an easy oil pattern is when a lot of oil is applied to the middle of the lane and very little oil is applied to the outside of the lane (as is the case for a typical bowling alley that services bowlers of all skill levels).

The objective of the game is to knock down as many pins as possible in each of 10 separate frames. (These 10 frames constitute one game.) In each frame, a bowler is given two attempts to knock down all 10 pins, with a successful attempt on the first roll known as a ?strike? and a successful attempt on the second roll known as a ?spare.? A frame in which fewer than 10 pins are knocked down after two rolls is known as an ?open frame.? In the tenth and final frame, a bowler is given a chance to roll a third time if he or she is able to score a ?strike? or a ?spare? in that frame. Thus, in the tenth frame, it is possible to roll three strikes (as well as a strike and a spare or an open frame).

The scoring system, while not overly complex, will not be thoroughly explained here (although an example will be provided later). Basically, high scores are achieved when many strikes and/or spares are rolled consecutively, while open frames are detrimental to achieving a high score. The highest possible score is 300, which is accomplished when 12 consecutive strikes are rolled (one in each of the first nine frames and three in the tenth frame). The lowest possible score is 0, which results if no pins are knocked down in any of the 10 frames.

Due to their ability to roll many consecutive strikes and/or spares, elite bowlers are able to achieve scores of 200 or more in a game on a regular basis. For a comprehensive analysis of the scoring system, including the number of ways in which all 301 possible scores can be achieved (see reference).

The PBA Tour is the top professional tour for ten-pin bowling in the United States. It consists of several tours, including the national tour, regional tour, women?s series (which became defunct after the 2009?2010 season), and senior tour. The national tour is comprised of the best bowlers in the country, as well as many top bowlers from other countries. The regional tour is just below the national tour and consists of seven regions throughout the country.

Despite the distinction as the ?minor leagues? of professional bowling, many top professionals bowl in regional tour events to keep their skills sharp between tournaments on the national tour (and because prize money at the highest levels of bowling is nowhere near as lucrative as it is in other individual sports, such as golf). Despite the current lack of a women?s tour, many professional female bowlers compete in both PBA national and regional tour events. While both of these tours are predominately male, women have achieved a moderate amount of success in recent years. Finally, the senior tour is for professional bowlers over the age of 50.

Since the focus of this article is the PBA National Tour, it is worthwhile to examine this tour in more depth. For most of its history, tournaments on the PBA National Tour were open to the entire PBA membership. Beginning in October of 2004, however, the national tour changed to an all-exempt format. In this format, only 64 bowlers would compete in certain tournaments throughout the season, while most other tournaments would be open to the entire PBA membership (as well as non-members, on occasion). Those bowlers who earned exemptions for the upcoming season would automatically make the field of 64 in the relevant tournaments, while all remaining spots (usually between four and 12) would be filled by those bowlers who had the highest cumulative scores in the TQR. With this change in the format, it became (and remains) beneficial to earn an exemption for the upcoming season. (See the appendix in the supplemental material at http://chance.amstat.org/category/supplemental for a complete list of how exemptions can be earned.)

To become a PBA member, and therefore become eligible to earn an exemption on the national tour, a bowler must meet the following criteria:

  • (1) Have an average score of 200 or higher for a minimum of 36 games in a United States Bowling Congress (USBC)-certified league or tournament club within the previous year
  • (2) Have an average score of 190 or higher for a minimum of 36 games in a USBC-certified Sport Bowling League within the previous year

These same criteria also must be met for a bowler who is not a PBA member to be eligible to bowl in a PBA event (not just an event on the national tour). Thus, it is clear that only elite bowlers (relative to most people who bowl) are eligible to compete in PBA events, both at the national and regional levels.

Data Set and Model

The data for this analysis comes from tournaments that were contested on the PBA National Tour, which was available from the PBA. (In a few rare cases, data were cross-referenced with the website bowlingdigital.com). For each tournament, I recorded each bowler?s name (first and last), his or her scores for all games bowled, the oil pattern (or patterns) used by the tournament, and the name of the tournament.

For data to be collected from a tournament, scores for every bowler who competed in the tournament had to be available, including those who competed in the TQR. As it happened, this criterion was met for most tournaments that began after the inception of the all-exempt format in October of 2004. In all but two tournaments for which data were collected, every score from every round was available. The lone exceptions were the USBC Masters tournament that was played during the 2009?2010 season, for which I was only able to collect scores for the first three qualifying rounds and the final three matches of the tournament, and the Exempt Doubles Classic that was played during the 2007?2008 season, for which I was only able to collect scores for the first three rounds.

For two other doubles tournaments (for which each doubles team was mixed gender), I only collected individual scores in the early rounds of the tournament, and not for rounds where team members bowled together in the same games.

In total, there were 117 tournaments for which data were collected, beginning with the 2004?2005 season and going through the end of the 2009?2010 season. There was a total of 278,579 games bowled by 3,931 bowlers during these tournaments.

A major issue encountered during the data-collection process involved attributing scores to the correct bowlers. Since many of the bowlers had common names and a bowler?s name was not always recorded as the same name for every tournament (e.g., Mike or Michael, with or without a ?Jr.? after the last name, etc.), it was a painstaking process to comb through all the names and determine whether different names in different tournaments actually referred to the same person or if the same name was actually two or more people.

Since information about date of birth and/or place of residence was provided for most bowlers, it usually wasn?t too difficult to determine which scores to attribute to which bowlers. However, in a few cases, it was only possible to make an educated guess, and thus the total of 3,931 bowlers is probably not exactly correct, although it should be close to the actual number.

There was also a minor issue with determining which scores were actually ?believable? as opposed to incorrectly recorded or as the result of fewer than 10 frames being bowled. For instance, a bowler was given a score of zero in some cases. These scores were not recorded, as they are almost certainly a result of the bowler either withdrawing from the tournament or being penalized for some infraction. In a few rare cases, low non-zero scores were given, and an educated guess was made to determine whether to record them. Given the size of the data set, it is believed that the results of the analysis would change little no matter what decisions were made concerning the few games in question.

Figure 1. Histogram of bowling scores on the PBA Tour

Figure 1. Histogram of bowling scores on the PBA Tour

The data for this histogram consist of scores for 278,579 games bowled by 3,931 bowlers over 117 tournaments on the PBA National Tour beginning in the 2004?2005 season and going through the 2009?2010 season (single-pin intervals).

A histogram of all 278,579 scores in the data set is presented in Figure 1. The histogram displays frequencies for each individual score, with each score represented by a thin bar. The mean of all scores was approximately 205.65, with a standard deviation of 31.91. There were 37 scores below 100 (with a low score of 78) and 555 perfect scores of 300.

The shape of the distribution is odd, with many peaks and valleys, especially for scores above 170. Most of the peaks occur at higher scores in ten-pin intervals (e.g., 171?180, 181?190, etc.), while the valleys appear at lower scores in the same ten-pin intervals. This is likely attributable to elite bowlers typically knocking down either nine or 10 pins (and rarely fewer than six) on their first roll of a frame. For example, to achieve a score in the 291?300 range, a bowler must successfully strike on his or her first 11 rolls (i.e., strikes in the first nine frames and on the first two rolls in the tenth frame). On the 12th and final roll, it is unlikely that an elite bowler will only knock down a few pins, and thus almost all of the scores in the 291?300 range are either 299 or 300.

Figure 2. Histogram of bowling scores on the PBA Tour (10?pin intervals)

Figure 2. Histogram of bowling scores on the PBA Tour (10?pin intervals)

The data for this histogram consist of scores for 278,579 games bowled by 3,931 bowlers over 117 tournaments on the PBA National Tour beginning in the 2004?2005 season and going through the 2009?2010 season (ten-pin intervals).

Clearly, the distribution of bowling scores in Figure 1 is not normally distributed, but it is fairly symmetrical, with slight positive skew (indicating a slightly longer right tail than the normal distribution) and negative kurtosis (meaning scores in the tails of the distribution have lower probability of occurring than would be predicted by the normal distribution). Due to this approximate symmetry and because most ten-pin intervals have a similar shape, I decided to check the distribution of the bowling scores when they were grouped into ten-pin intervals (e.g., 71?80, 81?90, ?, 291?300). The histogram of these grouped scores is presented in Figure 2.

The distribution is approximately normally distributed (again with slight positive skew and negative kurtosis). Therefore, while the normal distribution would certainly over-predict the probability of achieving a lower score in a given ten-pin interval and under-predict the probability of achieving a higher score in the same ten-pin interval, these predictions are similar across each ten-pin interval, thus it seems likely that a bowler?s average could be estimated relatively accurately using a normal distribution. The same can be said of estimating the average difficulty of a tournament based on all games bowled in that tournament. Because the normal distribution appears to be reasonable for predicting a bowler?s true average and the average difficulty of a tournament, it was used to model the bowling scores in the data set.

The model I use for bowling scores is similar to Berry?s model for golf scores. Like Berry?s model, two particular aspects of the data I attempt to capture with my model are varying difficulties of tournaments and regression to the mean. The following model controls for these particular aspects: Let ?i be the intrinsic ability of the ith bowler (assumed to be constant for each bowler over the time period for which I have collected data), which, in this case, can be interpreted as the ith bowler?s average score in an average PBA National Tour tournament. Let ?j be the intrinsic difficulty of the ith tournament, where the value for each ? represents each tournament?s deviation in score from the average tournament value of 0. Therefore, difficult tournaments will have negative values of ? and easier tournaments will have positive values of ?. Typically, the factor that has the biggest effect on a tournament?s difficulty is the oil pattern, but there also could be factors such as tournament location, lane material, and bowling pin material. Each bowler?s estimated average score in a particular tournament is based on the values of these two parameters, which can be expressed in the following manner:

  • ?ij = ?i + ?j
  • yij ~ Normal(?ij,?)

In the notation above, yij represents the score for the ith bowler in the jth tournament, while ? can be interpreted as the standard deviation from each bowler?s average score. In this model, the bowler abilities and tournament difficulties are additive, thus a bowler?s average score will rise or fall depending on the difficulty of the tournament. For example, if a bowler?s average score in an average tournament is 200 (i.e., ? = 200), then his expected average in a tournament with ? = -5 is 195 and his expected average in a tournament with ? = 5 is 205. For those interested in how the values of the parameters are estimated, see the appendix in the supplemental material.

I previously mentioned that the model attempts to capture phenomena known as ?regression to the mean.? In the context of bowler abilities (i.e., the ??s in the model specification), this means a given bowler?s ability is ?regressed? toward the average ability of all bowlers. The factors that influence how much a given bowler?s ability is regressed are the distance from the average ability, the total number of games bowled, and the difficulty of the tournaments in which a bowler competes.

Regressing bowlers toward the mean makes intuitive sense because we naturally expect a bowler who has a high average but only a relatively small number of games bowled to not be as good as his average indicates (and vice-versa). It is more likely that he simply bowled well for those few games and that his average after bowling many games would be lower.

For example, the bowler with the highest average in the data set is Jack Ness, who compiled a 236.17 average in 24 games at the Pepsi Red, White, and Blue Open during the 2009?2010 season. While this is impressive, it was only the 19th-highest average in the tournament, with the winner achieving an average of 247.16. Also, I do not believe many people would consider Ness?s 236.17 average in 24 games to be more impressive than, for example, Walter Ray Williams Jr.?s average of 225.07 (17th-highest among all bowlers) in 2,889 games, even if both players bowled all their games in the same tournament. Thus, the structure of the model regresses the ability of players such as Ness appropriately. For details about the model, refer to the supplemental material

Figure 3. Histogram of ability estimates for 3,931 bowlers in 117 PBA tournaments (2004?2005 through 2009?2010 seasons)

Figure 3. Histogram of ability estimates for 3,931 bowlers in 117 PBA tournaments (2004?2005 through 2009?2010 seasons)

Results for Bowler Abilities and Tournament Difficulties

A histogram of all 3,931 bowler ability estimates ??s) is displayed in Figure 3. (Each bar represents a two-pin interval.) The ability estimate for the average bowler (call this estimate ?average) was 190.69 (sd = 0.74) and the standard deviation for all bowler ability estimates (call this estimate ?) was 13.35 (sd = 0.19). Therefore, the average score for an average bowler in an average PBA tournament is 190.69, and it is clear from Figure 3 (and the value of ?) that there is substantial variation in bowler abilities. Notice also that the ability estimate for the average bowler is appreciably lower than the average of all 278,579 scores in the data set (which was about 205.65). This is due to many more games being bowled by the higher-ranked bowlers than by the average- and lower-ranked bowlers, which led to an inflated average for the actual scores relative to the ability estimate for the average bowler.

Table 1?List of the Top 25 Bowlers by Ability

Table 1?List of the Top 25 Bowlers by Ability

Table 1 lists the 25 bowlers with the highest ability estimates, along with their corresponding standard deviations and total number of games bowled. As is evident from the table, players who have bowled fewer games have larger standard deviations because their true abilities are much less certain. Because the ability estimates are assumed to come from a normal distribution, an approximate 95% credible interval (which is a Bayesian interval estimate whose computation and interpretation is different than that of the classic ?confidence interval?) can be constructed by taking the ability estimate plus or minus two times the standard deviation. For example, the approximate 95% credible interval for the highest-ranked bowler, Williams Jr., is given by 225.47?(2*0.87) = (223.73, 227.21). The interpretation of this interval is that there is a 95% probability that Williams Jr.?s true ability (his average score in an average PBA tournament) is between 223.73 and 227.21.

Bowling fans will recognize most of the names on this list. Williams Jr. is considered by many to be the greatest bowler of all time. Chris Barnes is considered by many fans and fellow professionals to be the best bowler in the game today, having won at least $100,000 in his last eleven seasons on tour. The 3rd-ranked bowler, Joel Reyes, is likely unfamiliar to most bowling fans, and, indeed, I was surprised to see him ranked so high by the model. With so few games bowled compared to the rest of the bowlers in the top 10, I was initially curious why he wasn?t regressed more strongly toward the average bowler. (His average in 81 games over three tournaments was 227.74). I believe the answer lies in the fact that his 81 games bowled puts him in the 89.6th percentile for all bowlers in the data set (the median number of games bowled is 18). So while he has few games bowled relative to many of the better-known bowlers, he has bowled more games than a significant majority of the other bowlers in the data set, and therefore his ability estimate was not regressed too much. This is a likely explanation for why the other five bowlers with fewer than 100 games bowled appear in the top 25 as well.

Finally, note that Jack Ness is not among the top 25 bowlers listed in Table 1. Given that the tournament he bowled in was the easiest of all 117 and because he only bowled 24 games, Ness finished as the 125th-ranked bowler with ? = 212.81 and a standard deviation of 5.21.

Because bowling is one of the few sports in which female professionals can legitimately compete with their male counterparts, I was interested to see where the top female bowlers were ranked. The top three were Liz Johnson (83rd, ? = 214.57, sd = 1.16), Kelly Kulick (114th, ? = 213.13, sd = 1.24), and Carolyn Dorin-Ballard (119th, ? = 213, sd = 1.83).

Johnson was voted the female bowler of the decade for 2000?2009 in a poll by US Bowler magazine. Kulick is the only woman to ever win a PBA National Tour event (Tournament of Champions in the 2009?2010 season) and earn an exemption (2006?2007, 2010?2011, and 2011?2012 seasons). She placed third in the same poll by US Bowler magazine. Dorin-Ballard had a successful career on the now defunct Professional Women?s Bowling Association (PWBA) Tour, winning 20 titles in 14 years. She placed second in the poll by US Bowler.

Table 2?List of the Five Toughest and Five Easiest PBA Tournaments by Difficulty

Table 2?List of the Five Toughest and Five Easiest PBA Tournaments by Difficulty

Table 2 lists the five toughest and five easiest tournaments by their difficulty estimates (??s), along with their corresponding standard deviations and total number of games bowled. Just like the bowler ability estimates, tournaments with fewer games bowled have larger standard deviations and are regressed toward the mean more strongly. (The average tournament difficulty is 0.) Once again, an approximate 95% credible interval can be constructed by taking the difficulty estimate plus or minus two times the standard deviation. The standard deviation for all tournament difficulty estimates was 7.49 (sd = 0.5), indicating there is considerable variation in the difficulties of the tournaments.

It was interesting to see how tournament difficulties varied by season and oil pattern. In general, tournaments in the most recent seasons were more difficult. The 2009?2010 season was especially difficult, as six of the 10 most difficult tournaments were played during that season. I also found it intriguing that tournaments that used the same oil pattern sometimes differed dramatically in difficulty. For example, the Scorpion Championship (which uses a ?scorpion? oil pattern) that was played during the 2008?2009 season was one of the easiest tournaments in the data set (110th, ? = 11.98, sd = 0.94), while the same tournament played the following season was the most difficult (see Table 2). The PBA did make major changes to several oil patterns prior to the 2009?2010 season, however, so perhaps such a colossal change in difficulty is not so surprising. But, even within the same season, there was sometimes a significant disparity in the difficulties of tournaments that used the same oil pattern, indicating that either factors other than the oil pattern play a major role in determining a tournament?s difficulty and/or different tournaments can apply the same oil pattern to the bowling lanes in vastly different ways.

Probabilities for Individual Bowler Match-Ups and Tournaments

One of the reasons a normal distribution was used to model the bowling scores is because it allows for relatively easy computation of probabilities via the use of the standard normal cumulative distribution function, denoted by ?. However, this ease of computation is only meaningful if the normal distribution fits the data reasonably well. As previously mentioned, the individual bowling scores are clearly non-normal (see Figure 1), but the distribution of scores using ten-pin intervals is approximately normally distributed (see Figure 2). Therefore, a bowler?s average is likely to be accurately estimated by the normal distribution, which allows for relatively accurate calculation of probabilities for individual bowler match-ups and tournaments with many bowlers.

To calculate the relevant probabilities, we need to know the value of ? from the model specification that was presented earlier. Recall that ? is the standard deviation from each bowler?s average score, which is assumed to be the same for all bowlers. The estimate for the value of ? was 27.47 (sd = 0.04). I suspect most bowling fans are not surprised by this estimate, since bowling scores can vary dramatically from one game to the next. This high variation is due in large part to the scoring system in bowling. I illustrate this with a hypothetical example, which is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Sample bowling score

Figure 4. Sample bowling score

In this example, a strike is indicated by an X and a spare is indicated by a /. The final score for this game is 246. Now suppose the eight pins that were knocked down on the first roll in the eighth frame resulted in a split (a situation in which achieving a spare is difficult). Let?s assume one pin is knocked down on the next roll in the eighth frame and nothing else changes. Now the score for this game is 235. Now, let?s assume that, in addition to the open frame in the eighth, the fourth frame results in nine pins being knocked down on the first roll followed by a spare. The score for this game now becomes 224. If we further assume one of the spare conversions is missed, say the spare attempt in the seventh frame, then the score drops to 214. This example should give those who are unfamiliar with the scoring system in bowling an indication of how big of an effect a few pins can have on a bowler?s final score.

As a check of the validity of the normal distribution for probabilistic purposes, several bowler match-ups were simulated using their estimated abilities and the estimated value of ? = 27.47. The results were compared with simulations using each bowler?s empirical distributions (i.e., each bowler?s actual scores). Those bowlers who had many games bowled in the data set were chosen for the comparisons because their empirical distributions are much more reflective of their true score distributions (i.e., they have bowled enough games to achieve a variety of scores).

A particular comparison was between Williams Jr. and Barnes, the two bowlers with the highest ability estimates (see Table 1). Each of their individual score distributions closely resembled the distribution of scores in Figure 1 (except that both were shifted to the right), and each of their score distributions were approximately normally distributed (closely resembling Figure 2) when they were grouped into ten-pin intervals. Four match lengths (of 1, 3, 5, and 7 games) were simulated 10 million times using both the normal distribution estimates and empirical distributions (with scores constrained between 0 and 300). Each simulation recorded which player won the match and the total scores for each player at the end of each match. Therefore, in addition to calculating the probability of each player winning a particular match, the probability of each player winning a match with the highest cumulative score was calculated.

I decided to calculate this second probability because it is not uncommon for a bowler to have a higher cumulative score and still lose the match (assuming the match is longer than one game) due to a bowler having to win more individual games to win a match (i.e., be the first to win two games in a three-game match, three games in a five-game match, etc.). For the match-up between Williams Jr. and Barnes, the simulations produced the results in Table 3, with the probability of Barnes winning with the highest cumulative score in parenthesis.

Table 3?Comparison of Probabilities in a Match of Various Lengths Between Walter Ray Williams Jr. and Chris Barnes Using the Normal and Empirical Distributions for Their Bowling Scores

Table 3?Comparison of Probabilities in a Match of Various Lengths Between Walter Ray Williams Jr. and Chris Barnes Using the Normal and Empirical Distributions for Their Bowling Scores

Clearly, the probabilities of winning the match and winning the match with the highest cumulative score are close between the normal distribution estimates and the empirical distributions. Comparisons between other bowlers resulted in similar agreement.

Table 4?Probabilities of Superior Bowler Winning a Match of Various Lengths and Winning with the Highest Cumulative Score (Probability of Underdog Winning with Highest Cumulative Score in Parentheses)

Table 4?Probabilities of Superior Bowler Winning a Match of Various Lengths and Winning with the Highest Cumulative Score (Probability of Underdog Winning with Highest Cumulative Score in Parentheses)

Table 4 presents simulated results for selected differences in bowler ability estimates with ? = 27.47. Note that the probabilities of the superior bowler winning (?favorite? in the table) can be calculated by using the standard normal cumulative distribution function, denoted by ?. (I chose to simulate because I wanted to estimate the probabilities of each player winning with the highest cumulative score as well). For example, when the difference in bowler ability estimates is five pins, the probability of the superior bowler winning a one-game match is ?(5/(27.47*?2))?0.551, which is in agreement with Table 4.

As expected, the probability of the favorite winning increases as the number of games in the match increases. However, the probabilities listed in Table 4 make it clear that the high variation in bowling scores has a major effect on the outcome of a particular bowling match. Even when the average scores between two players differ by 50 pins, the weaker bowler still has a 10% probability of winning in a one-game match.

It is also noteworthy how the probability of the favorite (and underdog) winning the match with the highest cumulative score changes as the difference in bowler abilities and number of games change. When the difference in bowler abilities is less than 10 pins, the probability of the favorite winning with the highest cumulative score decreases as the number of games increases, but the pattern reverses for differences in bowler abilities above 10 pins. Not surprisingly, the probability of the underdog winning with the highest cumulative score decreases steadily as the difference in bowler abilities increases and the number of games increases.

In addition to individual match-ups, it is also interesting to consider the probabilities of bowlers winning tournaments or advancing from the TQR. On the PBA National Tour, there are typically two types of tournaments: match-play and step-ladder. In a match-play tournament, 64 players (comprised of exempt players and those who advance from the qualifying round) play in a bracket-style format in which 32 matches of a certain length (usually seven games) take place in the first round (#1 vs. #64, #2 vs. #63, ?, with the winners moving on to the next round), 16 matches take place in the next round (again, the winners move on), ?, all the way to the final match, in which the winner is declared the winner of the tournament.

Over the past few seasons, the match-play format has typically begun with 32 players who advance from the original field of 64 based on highest cumulative scores after bowling a certain number of games.

In a step-ladder tournament, all players in the field (whether restricted to 64 or open to any number who qualify to compete) bowl a certain number of games in the initial round and the field is arbitrarily cut to a number of players who achieved the highest cumulative scores afterward. This process continues in subsequent rounds until the match-play round is reached. In this round, each player competes in one-game matches against as many other players as possible, with an additional 30 pins added to the cumulative score of the winner and 15 pins added for a tie (cumulative scores carry over from the initial rounds).

The last match for all players in the match-play round is typically called the ?position round,? and in this case, players who are close in cumulative score play against one another (i.e., the player with the highest cumulative score plays the player with the second-highest cumulative score, etc.). At the conclusion of the match-play round, usually the four or five players with the highest cumulative scores move on to the step-ladder finals. When five players move on, the first one-game match takes place between the player with the fifth-highest cumulative score and the player with the fourth-highest cumulative score. The winner of this match then competes in a one-game match against the player with the third-highest cumulative score, with the winner moving on to play the player with the second-highest cumulative score. Finally, whoever has made it to the final one-game match competes against the player with the highest cumulative score, and the winner of that match wins the tournament.

Having already investigated individual match-ups (see Table 4), I chose to examine a step-ladder tournament using the 64 players with the highest ability estimates. I used a common format for this type of tournament that has been used in recent seasons on the PBA Tour. Under this format, 64 players bowl 14 games each in the first round, after which the players with the 32 highest cumulative scores move on to the second round. In this round, each of the remaining 32 players bowls nine more games, after which the field is cut to 16 players. These remaining 16 players bowl nine games, and, at the end of this round, the five players with the highest cumulative scores (after the previous 32 games) move on to the step-ladder finals, which proceeds as described above. (I ignore the additional 30- or 15-pin bonuses awarded in the match-play round.)

Using this format with the top 64 bowlers and simulating the tournament 1 million times (using each bowler?s ability estimate and ? = 27.47), the top 10 bowlers (see Table 1) have the following probabilities of winning the tournament: 0.054, 0.044, 0.043, 0.039, 0.037, 0.032, 0.03, 0.03, 0.025, and 0.025. For comparison, the 64th-ranked bowler has a probability of 0.006 of winning the tournament. Considering the large variation in bowling scores and high quality of the field, I think Williams Jr.?s 5.4% probability of winning the tournament (which corresponds to odds against winning of about 17.5 to 1) is pretty remarkable. Even so, it is clear that the large variation in bowling scores gives many of the top 64 bowlers a legitimate chance to win the tournament.

One other tournament simulation I was interested in conducting was the probability of advancing from the TQR into the field of 64 for bowlers of various abilities. I decided to calculate three sets of probabilities for varying strengths of the qualifying field. In each case, there were 80 bowlers in the field, eight qualifying spots were available, and each player bowled seven games.

The ?strong? field consisted of the top 40 bowlers below the top 56 who were already exempt (i.e., those bowlers who were ranked 57th through 96th, whose values range from 215.98 to 213.86), 20 bowlers who were all one standard deviation above average (thus, each of these 20 bowlers had ?above_average= ?average+ ?=190.69 + 13.35 = 204.04), 15 average bowlers (?average=190.69 ), and five bowlers who were all one standard deviation below average (?below_average= ?average ? ? = 190.69 ? 13.35 = 177.34).

The ?average? field consisted of the top 30 bowlers below the top 56 who were exempt, 20 bowlers one standard deviation above average, 20 average bowlers, and 10 bowlers one standard deviation below average.

Finally, the ?weak? field consisted of the top 20 bowlers below the top 56 who were exempt, 20 bowlers one standard deviation above average, 20 average bowlers, and 20 bowlers one standard deviation below average.

Table 5?Odds to 1 Against Advancing from the TQR for Various Field Strengths and for Bowlers of Various Abilities, Assuming a Field Size of 80 Bowlers, 8 Qualifying Spots, and 7 Games Bowled for Each Bowler

Table 5?Odds to 1 Against Advancing from the TQR for Various Field Strengths and for Bowlers of Various Abilities, Assuming a Field Size of 80 Bowlers, 8 Qualifying Spots, and 7 Games Bowled for Each Bowler

Using these ability estimates and ? = 27.47, all three tournaments were simulated 1 million times. The range of the odds against advancing to the field of 64 for the strong bowlers (those right below the top 56 exempt) and the average odds against advancing to the field of 64 for the other three groups of bowlers are presented in Table 5.

As expected, the table indicates that as the field gets weaker, every bowler becomes more likely to advance from the qualifying round into the field of 64. It is also not surprising that bowlers of below average ability are extremely unlikely to make it out of the qualifying round. Bowlers of average ability also do not often make it out of the qualifying round, while bowlers of above average ability have a small but realistic chance of qualifying for the field of 64. Although the strong bowlers are by far the most likely to make the field of 64, it is by no means certain that they will do so. Even in a weak field, the best bowlers will only qualify for the tournament between 32% and 36% of the time. I believe these results demonstrate just how beneficial it is to earn an exemption on the PBA National Tour.

Conclusion

The primary focus of this article has been estimating different sources of variation in bowling. As expected, the natural variation in bowling scores was found to be quite high (? = 27.47), and because of this substantial variation, it is unlikely that any model would be able to predict bowling scores with relatively little error. Despite this, there also appears to be considerable variation in bowler abilities and tournament difficulties (standard deviations of 13.35 and 7.49, respectively).

In his article on golf scores, Berry estimated the standard deviation of golf scores at 3.12 and the standard deviation of golfer abilities at 2.1, which results in a standard deviation of score to standard deviation of ability ratio of approximately 1.49. This ratio is slightly higher in bowling, at approximately 2.06. I actually expected the ratio in bowling to be much higher than the ratio in golf and was pleasantly surprised to find that the two ratios were not incredibly different. Given that golf is perceived as a game that requires great skill to perform well, I think the similarities in natural variation in score to variation in ability ratios give credence to the belief that bowling is also a game that requires tremendous skill to perform well.

Perhaps the strangest result found was that tournaments using the same oil pattern occasionally differed significantly in difficulty. There were a few tournaments that consistently used the same oil pattern and were often similar in difficulty, but this similarity was nonexistent for other tournaments. As previously explained, part of the discrepancy is likely due to the oil patterns sometimes undergoing modifications, although it is difficult to determine how dramatically these changes should affect performance. While I still believe a tournament?s oil pattern has the most significant influence on it?s difficulty, perhaps a future analysis could investigate other factors that might affect the difficulty of a given tournament.

Finally, it is worth noting that all the tournaments for the 2010?2011 season on the PBA National Tour (which have been significantly reduced in number relative to previous seasons) will use the step-ladder format, as opposed to the match-play format. It also appears that the 2010?2011 season has fewer tournaments using the 64-player, all-exempt format.

While it is difficult to say whether these changes will become permanent, I believe the step-ladder format is advantageous for superior bowlers, while allowing more competitors is a disadvantage for superior bowlers (unless the number of games bowled before each cut is increased). I am interested in seeing if and how the tournament structure of the PBA National Tour changes in the coming years, as well as who benefits if changes are implemented.

Back to Top

Further Reading

Berry, S.M., C.S. Reese, and P.D. Larkey. 1999. Bridging different eras in sports. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94:661?686.

Berry, S.M. 2001. How ferocious is Tiger? CHANCE 14:51?56.

Berry, S.M. 2002. Read during your leisure time. CHANCE 15:48?55.

Chen, W., and T. Swartz. 1994. Quantitative aspects of five-pin bowling. Journal of the American Statistical Association 48:92?98.

Dorsey-Palmateer, R., and G. Smith. 2004. Bowlers? hot hands. The American Statistician 58:38?45.

Kruschke, J.K. 2011. Doing Bayesian data analysis. Academic Press: Massachusetts.

Ntzoufras, I. 2009. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS. John Wiley & Sons: New Jersey.

Wikipedia Contributors. Ten-pin bowling. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten-pin_bowling

Source: http://chance.amstat.org/2011/09/professional-bowling/

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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Rash Guards and Surfing | Ndsu Blue Key

With the growing level of outdoor recreational activities and growing awareness about sunburn protection among women the popularity of women?s rah guards has also been increased. Women are now participating is all kinds of water sports like surfing, wake boarding, windsurfing, water skiing, scuba diving, swimming, kayaking, and other activities. As women and girls explore their active lifestyles they are discovering the value of the rash guard shirt for much of the same reasons as men. It?s really a nice experience to protect yourself against rash and sun by using a material which is not only stylish and durable but affordable as well. Today smart girls are using these rash guards that are available at sporting events, surf shops and departmental stores easily. You can buy woman rash guard so conveniently that ever before. This is great because women deserve the comfort and benefits of wearing these amazing products. The girls and women?s styles come in long sleeve, short sleeve, and a special feminine cap sleeve that affords them more freedom of movement and a stylish approach to wearing what could be a rather unstylish piece of clothing. When these girls and women?s rashguards get wet they droop and might make a lady uncomfortable as the garment becomes form fitting. In this case they can prefer loose fit rash guard for women which not only let the extra material adjust properly but also give all other benefits of regular rashguards. Some girls prefer to wear Roxy brand which is available in several designs and have its logo on it with higher price tag. rash guard Men?s rashguards are great for lots of activities men want to participate in. Sports and recreational outdoor activities like mma, martial arts, water sports, surfing, scuba diving, and many others often require the protection of a rash guard shirt to help avoid bothersome rash. Rash guards can be used to avoid sunburn as they can block the harmful ultraviolet sun rays. Men can easily get rash guards in variety of colors, designs and shapes. Some men prefer to get short sleeves some like long sleeve. Short sleeve is good when you want more freedom and flexibility, and long sleeve have the benefit of added rash and sun protection on the arm. There are a wide range of colors available, but the most popular ones are the blue and black styles. Some men prefer logo imprinted rashguards, while others prefer the blank simple ones. Men can get rash guard in various thicknesses to make them durable during the rigorous activities. Kids rash guards are great for children as they can enjoy beach or swimming games with no fear of sunburn. The perfect fabric composition of Kids rash guards created by using nylon and lycra makes parents relaxed about the protection of their children against the negative impact of sunburn to their children. Children should have rashguards in all cases including the summer vacations, beach games or swimming classes etc. Everywhere these days you see kids swimming in pools wearing these swim shirts as they check in with mom or dad to double up on face sunblock. Also we see that children come to beach for boarding or surfing with their rash guards to protect themselves against sunburn. Many young surfers wear these performance apparel products underneath their wetsuits for rash protection. Sometimes they go surfing in just the rashguard by itself, as they are actually quite comfortable to surf in and look cool when you ride waves in them. On beach if children go for surfing with their rashguard their parents will have no problem in spotting them easily. You should use long sleeve rash guards if you need extra protection for your arm. In tropical areas where sun gets harsh you should use long sleeves style to make you more protective. Long sleeves not only help you protect against sunburn but also against environmental elements you are not used to live in foreign areas. Such long sleeves rash guard can protect you against the harmful influence of mosquitoes usually get aggressive in tropical areas. The Short Sleeve rash guards are best if you need to move flexibly as you do in T-shirts while protecting the body against sun and rash properly. Some people like their arms exposed and do not feel they need the extra sleeve for protection. Most of them like shorter sleeve as they are available in various brands and at cheaper rates. Surfers generally prefer the shorter sleeves because they want their arms free. Loose Fit rash guards is an ideal design for such modest natured ladies who don?t want to get fitted into their clothes. Athletic fit is not ideal for all people as some want to get loose fitting swim shirt while going for swimming. Some women are significantly larger and overweight and obviously don?t feel good in a tight lycra and nylon shirt, so these loose fit versions of the rashguards are becoming a popular product. Surely there are also some men who prefer the more casual attire and want the loose fitting style also. So whatever applies to women can apply to men as well. The loose fit rashguard can be found in select stores only, and is often made with special material and comes with a slightly higher price. The top brands of rash guards are Body Glove, Billabong, O?Neill, Roxy, and Quicksilver. These are the most common brand names and typically the highest quality. People want to know the top brands to get quality product easily. But most of them don?t know that whether they have made these products overseas or in United States. The rash guards made in US are more reliable and durable than others. Body Glove company is around here since the establishment of body boarding as a sport. Earlier it was in the business of swim wear, bathing suits and water apparel but now making rash guards as well. This company has maintained its reputation in this field with quality products in all types. rash guards Billabong is a great brand with it?s roots in the surfing industry. After giving quality products in the field of surf clothing, surf accessories and wetsuits now Billabong is also making quality rashguards. Billabong brand apparel and products are preferred by a majority of surfers who like it for its unmatchable quality. O?Neill is a big name in wetsuit manufacturing now producing quality surf rashguards for you. You can get O?Neill products at swim stores, fitness outlet, local surf shop and sporting stores easily. Majority of females like this brand because of its stylish look according to fashion styles today. Roxy is a brand specific to women and girls, and they are a subsidiary of Quiksilver. They present a great collection in sports apparel and beach style clothing for women and young girls. Roxy rash guards are appreciated for their fashionable qualities and artwork design. Roxy is particularly preferred by young generation during their online or surf shopping. Roxy can be found in any surf store, hip and cool clothing outlet, and just about any mall. You?ll probably find a handful of young women sporting the Roxy brand and your local high school. You can get extra detail about Rash guard brands from any representative present at the stores at local or online forum. Be sure to search Google for a specific color or style of rash guard you desire, and beware of any website?s selling rash guards that don?t promise that they are made in the USA.

Source: http://www.ndsubluekey.com/ndsu-blue-key/8798

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Meet and Greet Car Hire Service Luton | Home and Leisure Blog

It?s a great feeling when you finally book your holiday, and you can begin to think about packing and enjoying the hot weather that is guaranteed to be waiting for you when you fly abroad. One potential drawback which can cause great anxiety is sorting out travel arrangements to and from the airport, yet with ?meet and greet? services available, you have nothing to worry about; specialist companies provide a car hire Luton service which makes life a lot easier, as this article will explain.

There is nothing worse than landing at the airport, worried sick about travelling back home. As such, leading hire companies that have spotted this flaw in the market have come up with the innovative meet and greet service. It gives you all the independence without any of the unnecessary and unwelcomed distress that can arise when trying to travel back home after a holiday.

Forget about rushing around a large car park trying to find the hire car, and embrace the meet and greet service. A professional member of a car hire firm will personally greet you at the airport, hand you the keys and take you to where the car has been parked ? it?s that easy. As the saying goes, it does exactly what it says on the tin.

All you have to do is find a company that offers this service, inform them what car, make and model you want, and the dates and times you are scheduled to land at the airport. It removes any of the unnecessary hassle, leaving you with no other worry than finding your luggage.

One particular company have a great selection of cars all for hire. This gives you the opportunity to choose the car you want which is fitted with all the mod cons as standard, including CD, radio and air conditioning. This company is able deliver a service that is completely tailored to make your life less stressful.

If you are interested in this service it?s always worth bearing in mind that the service is only as good as the company. Therefore, one top tip would be to choose a company that not only offers this service, but also offers fantastic customer care and a selection of quality vehicles for car hire Luton. So, if you?re looking for a place that offers this useful and innovative service, then look no further as this one, well established company based in Luton delivers the perfect meet and greet package.

Disclaimer of Endorsement: Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favouring by Easi-Drive. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Easi-Drive, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

Tags: car hire Luton

Source: http://www.homeandleisurereview.co.uk/0286881/cars/meet-greet-car-hire-service-luton

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Iraq signs deal to buy 18 F-16 warplanes (Reuters)

BAGHDAD (Reuters) ? Iraq has signed a contract to buy 18 Lockheed Martin F-16 warplanes to bolster its air force, an adviser to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Monday.

The value of the deal was not immediately known, but a senior U.S. military official said recently the offer on the table for the Iraqi government was valued at "roughly $3 billion."

Iraqi and U.S. military officials have said strengthening its air force is one of Baghdad's top priorities as U.S. troops prepare to leave by December 31, more than eight years after the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

"The contract was signed ... and a part of the contract cost was sent to the bank account of the company," said Maliki's media adviser, Ali al-Moussawi.

Lockheed said in a statement it looked forward to a partnership with Baghdad and was "pleased with the confidence Iraq places in our products." It declined to comment on the specifics of the deal, referring questions to the Iraqi and U.S. governments.

The Pentagon said it was aware of news reports that Iraq had signed the agreement but did not immediately confirm and referred questions to Baghdad.

Iraq has long sought a combat jet for its rebuilt air force. The government delayed a planned purchase of F-16s in February to divert a $900 million down payment to its national food ration program to help quell street protests.

Maliki said on July 30 Iraq would buy 36 F-16s, double the number it had originally planned, to shore up its weak air defenses. The OPEC producer has found itself flush with cash this year, reaping windfall profits as world oil prices have remained above budget projections.

The two sides have been negotiating for the F-16 Block 52 export model with sophisticated avionics and weapons in a deal that included maintenance and training, a U.S. military official said.

Iraq is relying on the U.S. military for air support as it rebuilds its forces and battles a stubborn Islamist insurgency. Washington and Baghdad are discussing whether to keep some U.S. troops or military trainers in Iraq beyond the year-end deadline for U.S. departure.

Iraq's two airborne defense units, the Air Force and Army Aviation Command, have only 158 aircraft, including 89 helicopters and 69 airplanes, and about 7,500 personnel, according to U.S. figures.

At present, it has three Cessna Caravan propeller planes equipped with Hellfire missiles but no combat jets, a U.S. military official said.

(Additional reporting and writing by Jim Loney; Editing by Tim Pearce and Todd Eastham)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/world/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110926/wl_nm/us_iraq_warplanes

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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Tooth extraction | Articles Manifest

In latest occasions, the cost of dental treatment has skyrocketed. This incorporates all varieties of dentistry including teeth cleaning, extractions, and dental medical procedures. For individuals who reside in Denver, CO, there are several alternatives to choose from when spending for routine or emergency dental treatment. In simple fact, obtaining a tooth extraction Denver may just be a lot more simply afforded than what some might be informed of.

The flat price for a tooth extraction in Denver might differ amongst dental offices. The sort of extraction can also trigger a distinction in the cost. A straightforward extraction may possibly value in between $60-$seventy five, but a wisdom tooth extraction that demands a lot more time and energy could value a lot far more.

One particular of the fantastic factors of getting dental solutions performed in Denver is the variety of payment forms that numerous dental offices accept. Most dental offices in this area take a number of different well being insurance policy ideas that will enable sufferers to only be essential to pay out a tiny copay at the time of support. If you have selected an in-network dental provider for your program, this copay can be even less.

A lot of dental offices also supply solutions to people who have state medicaid or medicare as well. Even though cosmetic dental function may not be coated by these kinds of well being treatment, extractions are coated simply because they are deemed a needed portion of the patients excellent wellbeing. Yearly checkups and teeth cleanings are also generally coated as a preventative measure to keep away from poor dental wellness.

For these who could not have any sort of wellbeing insurance plan, dental insurance policy, or state supplied health care program, most dental offices will offer you a payment approach. The complete cost will be calculated and can be divided up more than a couple of months to make dental treatment much more easily affordable. This will need to be arranged just before services and you may possibly want to pay a proportion of the price upfront prior to any dental work is executed.

So, if you live in the Denver place and want to have a tooth extraction or other dental care, do not worry that it is impossible to obtain. By calling each and every dental office environment and discussing the kinds of payment kinds they accept, you could find a payment approach that fits your budget properly. You can evaluate the prices and alternatives of all dentists in your location so that you can make a effectively informed selection much more simply.

Wisdom teeth extraction is a really typical oral surgery. Dentists can extract them effortlessly but many of them are not too eager to do it simply because of feasible side consequences this sort of as disruption of sinus performance, jaw ache and shifting of encompassing teeth.

Prior to we contact on knowledge teeth extraction expense, let us have a seem at the possible facet results of this reasonably slight surgical treatment.

If you are aged 35 many years or more, the complication risks are very higher. If you are more than fifty years aged, the chance amounts shoot larger simply because the bone have fused with the teeth because of to the getting older approach. That is the important cause why dentists typically advocate wisdom teeth extraction when they noticed possible troubles and their customers is nevertheless in their teenagers.

To decide whether or not your 3rd molars (that?s the identify some men and women have for wisdom teeth), dentists would appear at the anatomical capabilities close to the dilemma location and deploy digital x-rays before coming to a summary whether to extract your knowledge tooth.

If you suffer from teeth problem, Visit for more informaiton tooth extraction cost

Source: http://articlesmanifest.com/health-fitness/tooth-extraction

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MEPPs: The next piece of the pension pie? | Calgary Debt ...

Currently, only four out of every 10 Canadians are covered by a pension plan other than CPP or QPP. Employers often don?t like DB plans because they?re too risky. Employees will take anything they can get but would normally prefer DB plans. How do we resolve this conflict and increase pension plan coverage in Canada?

Multi-employer pension plans (MEPPs) have been around since the middle of the 20th century. Typically, they are target benefit plans (TBPs) that involve a union or unions. More recently, a renewed breed of MEPP/TBP has been conceived by each of the key expert pension commissions across the country (Alberta/B.C., Ontario, Nova Scotia and federal). They simply referred to them by slightly different names: SCTBP (specified contribution target benefit plan), JGTBP (jointly governed target benefit plan), TBP (target benefit plan) and NCDBP (negotiated cost defined benefit plan), respectively.

The primary purpose of the various expert commissions was to increase private pension plan coverage in the various jurisdictions. So far, that has not happened, but they did lay the groundwork by endorsing the TBP. It was then up to the various governments to put in place the necessary legislative and regulatory framework to allow the TBP to flourish, and this is now starting to happen.

Understanding MEPPs and TBPs
Traditional MEPPs?or, more specifically, SMEPPs (specified multi-employer pension plans), to differentiate them from public sector DB MEPPs:

  • involve several participating employers;
  • are union-negotiated/collectively bargained;
  • are governed by joint labour-management or 100% union-trusteed board;
  • are structured as a combination DB/DC plan, with both benefits and contributions defined (the objective is DB, but the promise is DC);
  • have fixed contributions (typically a cents-per-hour defined contribution rate) that go into the plan on a DC basis, and benefits (typically flat dollar) that are paid out from the plan on a DB basis;
  • have benefits that are targeted and are paid as scheduled, contingent on the plan?s financial position;
  • require members to bear 100% of the risk on a collective basis; and
  • are ?specified? as per the federal Income Tax Act.

MEPPs have weathered the financial storms of the past half-century, including the perfect storm of the early 2000s and the economic and market crisis of 2008. While benefits in most MEPPs have been reduced, on either or both an accrued past service and future service basis, it is likely that these reductions are only temporary and will eventually be restored as markets and economies recover. These plans are designed to weather the volatility of our times?something that traditional DB and DC plans struggle with.

TBPs will need to share many fundamental features with MEPPs in order to be effective:

  • trustees have the ability to reduce accrued benefits;
  • the employers? liability is limited to the fixed negotiated or agreed-upon contributions;
  • the plan is viewed as DC for both accounting (CICA, IFRS) and tax [Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)] purposes; and
  • there is no solvency funding requirement.

But the TBP concept envisioned by the expert commissions goes beyond the traditional MEPP in that there may be only a single employer or corporation, there may not be a union involved, and the contribution and benefit formulas are not limited to cents-per-hour and flat benefits, respectively (i.e., they may also be formularized as a percent of salary).

The future of TBPs
What has to happen in order for TBPs to flourish across the country?? First of all, TBPs need to be formally recognized in the various provincial legislations and regulations. This has already started to happen in Ontario, where TBP has been defined under the Pension Benefits Act (PBA) and the MEPP/TBP concept clarified with respect to single employers. The part of the proposed new law referencing the union versus non-union aspect uses the term ?collective agreement.? Simply removing the word collective would open up the TBP design to the huge Ontario private sector non-union environment.

The various provincial PBAs, the federal Pension Benefit Standards Act and the associated regulations, while viewing these plans as fundamentally DB, must allow the reduction in accrued benefits (just as Ontario?s does for MEPPs); exempt these plans from solvency funding (just as Ontario?s does for specified Ontario MEPPs and in line with new permanent exempting legislation now on the books); and not require the employer to make up any deficit in the plan. This is not the case in Quebec and New Brunswick, where MEPPs?and presumably the new TBPs?simply do not and will not work well because of the funding risk and associated DB accounting.

In addition, the provinces must extend the TBP to the single-employer and non-union environments. The federal taxation authority (the CRA) must view these TBPs as DC plans, just as they do SMEPPs?and, like the provinces, extend the application to the single-employer and non-union environments. Finally, the accounting authorities (CICA and IFRS) must view these plans as DC plans, just as they do SMEPPs, on the basis that the employer?s liability is limited to the fixed contribution rate.

Assuming that this legislative and regulatory environment is put in place, the stage is set for unprecedented growth in registered pension plans, extending private pension plan coverage beyond the existing four out of 10 Canadian workers to the remaining six out of 10 employees?the fundamental objective of the various expert pension commissions.

A ?perfect? solution in an imperfect world
In a perfect world, employers would prefer DC and most employees would prefer DB. But in our ?real? world, employers would prefer TBPs over DB plans because they have?

  • no surplus/deficit asymmetry and ownership issues (surpluses and deficits are 100% the members? responsibility);
  • no solvency funding requirements, other than calculation and disclosure;
  • predictable fixed costs/contributions;
  • no accounting problems or complexities or unforeseen hits to the employer?s financials;
  • transfers of risk and the associated responsibility of benefits/deficits to the members;
  • simpler and more flexible taxation rules (e.g., DB excess surplus rules are not applicable, pension adjustment calculations are simple); and
  • ease of administration advantages (the burden is transferred to a board of trustees and expenses are charged to the fund).

Again, in our real world, employees would prefer TBPs over DC plans because they have?

  • sharing or pooling of investment and mortality/longevity risks;
  • more secure and predictable benefits determined by a set scale or formula;
  • economies of scale (i.e., lower expense unit costs);
  • access to DB-type pension ancillaries, such as disability and subsidized early retirement benefits;
  • better investment returns, producing significantly higher pensions; and
  • joint governance.

MEPPs/TBPs represent a practical alternative to a traditional DB or DC plan that optimally balances the often-conflicting needs and objectives of both employers and employees, taking the best of both DB and DC worlds.

From the member?s perspective, the TBP has all of the features of a DB plan, except that it is contingent on the plan?s success. From the employer?s perspective, the TBP functions like a DC plan, with no obligation to fund deficits or beyond the fixed agreed-upon contributions.

Governance for these new TBPs will be critically important. Given that the risk is borne by the members, at a minimum, the employees must have a 50%?possibly even 100%?share of the governance. Jointly governed TBPs will likely become the norm, with basic current service cost (i.e., not including any deficit funding requirement) sharing anywhere from 100% employer/0% employee to 50/50. In this new world of operating a MEPP/TBP in a non-union situation, the traditional role of the union representatives acting as trustees will be met by member association or employee-elected representatives to a pension committee or board of trustees.

Finally, assuming that the necessary legislative and regulatory changes are made, we will have a plan design?the TBP design?which effectively works for both employers and employees in the private sector. This sets the stage for increasing the pie of registered pension plan coverage. With an effective vehicle that meets the two major stakeholders? requirements, pension plan coverage could be further enhanced by making a registered pension plan a mandatory requirement for all employers (or at least those meeting a certain size threshold, such as a minimum of 15 employees).

Opening up access to private pension plans via the TBP for the remaining 60% of Canadian workers will cost nothing to the government or taxpayers, as there is no Pension Benefits Guarantee Fund safety net. In fact, the ultimate beneficiary ?along with the newly covered employees themselves?will be future taxpayers, as the potential need for government social assistance down the road will be reduced significantly.

What?s needed now is to take this ?new? plan design from the point of conception to the actual birth of the new TBP for use in the single- as well as multi-employer environment?and in the non-union as well as union environment?thereby increasing the pie and broadening pension plan coverage across the province and the country.

H. Clare Pitcher is principal & consulting actuary and national retirement practice leader for Buck Consultants, a Xerox Company, in Canada. clare.pitcher@buckconsultants.com

Get a PDF of this article.

Benefits Canada ? Pensions

Source: http://finance101now.com/2011/09/mepps-the-next-piece-of-the-pension-pie/

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